Coverart for item
The Resource Oil and the United States Macroeconomy : An Update and a Simple Forecasting Exercise, Kevin L. Kliesen, (electronic resource)

Oil and the United States Macroeconomy : An Update and a Simple Forecasting Exercise, Kevin L. Kliesen, (electronic resource)

Label
Oil and the United States Macroeconomy : An Update and a Simple Forecasting Exercise
Title
Oil and the United States Macroeconomy
Title remainder
An Update and a Simple Forecasting Exercise
Statement of responsibility
Kevin L. Kliesen
Contributor
Subject
Genre
Language
eng
Summary
Some analysts and economists recently warned that the United States economy faces a much higher risk of recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and since then they have climbed even higher. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, it is highly probable that a recession began in the United States in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the United States economy has become much less sensitive to large changes in oil prices, a simple forecasting exercise using Hamilton's model augmented with the first principal component of 85 macroeconomic variables reveals that a permanent increase in the price of crude oil to $150 per barrel by the end of 2008 could have a significant negative effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product in the short run. Moreover, the model also predicts that such an increase in oil prices would produce much higher overall and core inflation rates in 2009 than most policymakers expect. ... Cf.: http://dx.doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR23220
Member of
Additional physical form
Also available as downloadable files.
Cataloging source
ICPSR
Characteristic
numeric data
Funding information
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Research Division.
Geographic coverage
United States.
Government publication
unknown if item is government publication
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
Series statement
ICPSR
Series volume
23220
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Consumer expenditures
  • Consumption
  • Depression (economic)
  • Economic activity
  • Economic conditions
  • Economic forecasting
  • Economic growth
  • Economic indicators
  • Economic models
  • Economic planning
  • Economic policy
  • Economic trends
  • Food costs
  • Fuel costs
  • Gross domestic product
  • Inflation
  • Macroeconomics
  • Oil prices
  • Oil production
  • Oil reserves
  • Oil shortages
  • Policy analysis
  • Policy making
  • Recession
Target audience
specialized
Label
Oil and the United States Macroeconomy : An Update and a Simple Forecasting Exercise, Kevin L. Kliesen, (electronic resource)
Instantiates
Publication
Note
Title from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2009-04-22
Antecedent source
unknown
Color
mixed
Contents
Part 1: Oil and the United States Macroeconomy: An Update and a Simple Forecasting Exercise
Control code
MIU01000000000000007093652
Dimensions
unknown
File format
multiple file formats
Governing access note
AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public
Level of compression
unknown
Note
MU: Records downloaded from ICPSR site on Dec. 8, 2009.
Quality assurance targets
unknown
Reformatting quality
unknown
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
  • (OCoLC)ocn436450819
  • (OCoLC)436450819
  • (MiAaI)ICPSR23220
  • (OCoLC)ocn436450819
  • (OCoLC)436450819
  • (MiAaI)ICPSR23220
System details
Mode of access: World Wide Web
Type of computer file
1 dataset.
Label
Oil and the United States Macroeconomy : An Update and a Simple Forecasting Exercise, Kevin L. Kliesen, (electronic resource)
Publication
Note
Title from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2009-04-22
Antecedent source
unknown
Color
mixed
Contents
Part 1: Oil and the United States Macroeconomy: An Update and a Simple Forecasting Exercise
Control code
MIU01000000000000007093652
Dimensions
unknown
File format
multiple file formats
Governing access note
AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public
Level of compression
unknown
Note
MU: Records downloaded from ICPSR site on Dec. 8, 2009.
Quality assurance targets
unknown
Reformatting quality
unknown
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
  • (OCoLC)ocn436450819
  • (OCoLC)436450819
  • (MiAaI)ICPSR23220
  • (OCoLC)ocn436450819
  • (OCoLC)436450819
  • (MiAaI)ICPSR23220
System details
Mode of access: World Wide Web
Type of computer file
1 dataset.

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