Coverart for item
The Resource Regime-Dependent Recession Forecasts and the 2001 Recession, Michael J. Dueker, (electronic resource)

Regime-Dependent Recession Forecasts and the 2001 Recession, Michael J. Dueker, (electronic resource)

Label
Regime-Dependent Recession Forecasts and the 2001 Recession
Title
Regime-Dependent Recession Forecasts and the 2001 Recession
Statement of responsibility
Michael J. Dueker
Contributor
Subject
Genre
Language
eng
Summary
Business recessions are notoriously hard to predict accurately, hence the quip that economists have predicted eight of the last five recessions. This article derives a six-month-ahead recession signal that reduces the number of false signals outside of recession, without impairing the ability to signal the recessions that occur. In terms of predicting the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions out of sample, the new recession signal, like other signals, largely misses the 1990-1991 recession with its six-month-ahead forecasts. In contrast, a recession onset in April or May 2001 was predicted six months ahead of the 2001 recession, which is close to the actual turning point of March 2001
Member of
Additional physical form
Also available as downloadable files.
Cataloging source
ICPSR
Characteristic
combination
Funding information
inap.
Geographic coverage
United States.
Government publication
unknown if item is government publication
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
Series statement
ICPSR
Series volume
1272
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Economic conditions
  • Economic change
  • Economic indicators
  • Prediction
  • Recession
Target audience
specialized
Label
Regime-Dependent Recession Forecasts and the 2001 Recession, Michael J. Dueker, (electronic resource)
Instantiates
Publication
Note
Title from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2004-10-30
Antecedent source
unknown
Color
mixed
Control code
MIU01000000000000005046457
Dimensions
unknown
File format
multiple file formats
Governing access note
AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public
Level of compression
unknown
Note
MU: Records downloaded from ICPSR site on Dec. 8, 2009.
Quality assurance targets
unknown
Reformatting quality
unknown
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
  • (MiAaI)ICPSR01272
  • (OCoLC)ocm61146170
  • (MiAaI)ICPSR01272
  • (OCoLC)ocm61146170
System details
Mode of access: Internet
Type of computer file
0 datasets.
Label
Regime-Dependent Recession Forecasts and the 2001 Recession, Michael J. Dueker, (electronic resource)
Publication
Note
Title from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2004-10-30
Antecedent source
unknown
Color
mixed
Control code
MIU01000000000000005046457
Dimensions
unknown
File format
multiple file formats
Governing access note
AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public
Level of compression
unknown
Note
MU: Records downloaded from ICPSR site on Dec. 8, 2009.
Quality assurance targets
unknown
Reformatting quality
unknown
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
  • (MiAaI)ICPSR01272
  • (OCoLC)ocm61146170
  • (MiAaI)ICPSR01272
  • (OCoLC)ocm61146170
System details
Mode of access: Internet
Type of computer file
0 datasets.

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