The Resource Understanding uncertainty, Dennis V. Lindley, Minehead, Somerset, England
Understanding uncertainty, Dennis V. Lindley, Minehead, Somerset, England
Resource Information
The item Understanding uncertainty, Dennis V. Lindley, Minehead, Somerset, England represents a specific, individual, material embodiment of a distinct intellectual or artistic creation found in University of Missouri Libraries.This item is available to borrow from 2 library branches.
Resource Information
The item Understanding uncertainty, Dennis V. Lindley, Minehead, Somerset, England represents a specific, individual, material embodiment of a distinct intellectual or artistic creation found in University of Missouri Libraries.
This item is available to borrow from 2 library branches.
 Summary
 "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill."Dennis Lindley Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decisionmaking and science. Completely reformatted and visually easy to read, this revised edition includes new material on the computational influence and breakthroughs of hierarchical Bayesian methods and inference; betting (Efron's dice); and the current recession; as well as additional illustrations, updated references, and simplified writing for clarity, ease of continuity and research
 Language
 eng
 Edition
 Revised edition.
 Extent
 1 online resource.
 Contents

 Understanding Uncertainty; Contents; Preface; Prologue; Chapter 1: Uncertainty; 1.1. Introduction; 1.2. Examples; 1.3. Suppression of Uncertainty; 1.4. The Removal of Uncertainty; 1.5. The Uses of Uncertainty; 1.6. The Calculus of Uncertainty; 1.7. Beliefs; 1.8. Decision Analysis; Chapter 2: Stylistic Questions; 2.1. Reason; 2.2. Unreason; 2.3. Facts; 2.4. Emotion; 2.5. Normative and Descriptive Approaches; 2.6. Simplicity; 2.7. Mathematics; 2.8. Writing; 2.9. Mathematics Tutorial; Chapter 3: Probability; 3.1. Measurement; 3.2. Randomness; 3.3. A Standard for Probability; 3.4. Probability
 3.5. Coherence3.6. Belief; 3.7. Complementary Event; 3.8. Odds; 3.9. Knowledge Base; 3.10. Examples; 3.11. Retrospect; Chapter 4: Two Events; 4.1. Two Events; 4.2. Conditional Probability; 4.3. Independence; 4.4. Association; 4.5. Examples; 4.6. Supposition and Fact; 4.7. Seeing and Doing; Chapter 5: The Rules of Probability; 5.1. Combinations of Events; 5.2. Addition Rule; 5.3. Multiplication Rule; 5.4. The Basic Rules; 5.5. Examples; 5.6. Extension of the Conversation; 5.7. Dutch Books; 5.8. Scoring Rules; 5.9. Logic Again; 5.10. Decision Analysis; 5.11. The Prisoners' Dilemma
 5.12. The Calculus and Reality5.13. Closure; Chapter 6: Bayes Rule; 6.1. Transposed Conditionals; 6.2. Learning; 6.3. Bayes Rule; 6.4. Medical Diagnosis; 6.5. Odds Form of Bayes Rule; 6.6. Forensic Evidence; 6.7. Likelihood Ratio; 6.8. Cromwell's Rule; 6.9. A Tale of Two Urns; 6.10. Ravens; 6.11. Diagnosis and Related Matters; 6.12. Information; Chapter 7: Measuring Uncertainty; 7.1. Classical Form; 7.2. Frequency Data; 7.3. Exchangeability; 7.4. Bernoulli Series; 7.5. De Finetti's Result; 7.6. Large Numbers; 7.7. Belief and Frequency; 7.8. Chance; Chapter 8: Three Events
 8.1. The Rules of Probability8.2. Simpson's Paradox; 8.3. Source of the Paradox; 8.4. Experimentation; 8.5. Randomization; 8.6. Exchangeability; 8.7. Spurious Association; 8.8. Independence; 8.9. Conclusions; Chapter 9: Variation; 9.1. Variation and Uncertainty; 9.2. Binomial Distribution; 9.3. Expectation; 9.4. Poisson Distribution; 9.5. Spread; 9.6. Variability as an Experimental Tool; 9.7. Probability and Chance; 9.8. Pictorial Representation; 9.9. Probability Densities; 9.10. The Normal Distribution; 9.11. Variation as a Natural Phenomenon; 9.12. Ellsberg's Paradox
 Chapter 10: Decision Analysis10.1. Beliefs and Actions; 10.2. Comparison of Consequences; 10.3. Medical Example; 10.4. Maximization of Expected Utility; 10.5. More on Utility; 10.6. Some Complications; 10.7. Reason and Emotion; 10.8. Numeracy; 10.9. Expected Utility; 10.10. Decision Trees; 10.11. The Art and Science of Decision Analysis; 10.12. Further Complications; 10.13. Combination of Features; 10.14. Legal Applications; Chapter 11: Science; 11.1. Scientific Method; 11.2. Science and Education; 11.3. Data Uncertainty; 11.4. Theories; 11.5. Uncertainty of a Theory
 Isbn
 9781118650110
 Label
 Understanding uncertainty
 Title
 Understanding uncertainty
 Statement of responsibility
 Dennis V. Lindley, Minehead, Somerset, England
 Language
 eng
 Summary
 "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill."Dennis Lindley Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decisionmaking and science. Completely reformatted and visually easy to read, this revised edition includes new material on the computational influence and breakthroughs of hierarchical Bayesian methods and inference; betting (Efron's dice); and the current recession; as well as additional illustrations, updated references, and simplified writing for clarity, ease of continuity and research
 Cataloging source
 DLC
 http://library.link/vocab/creatorDate
 19232013
 http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
 Lindley, D. V.
 Dewey number
 519.2
 Index
 index present
 LC call number
 QA273
 Literary form
 non fiction
 Nature of contents

 dictionaries
 bibliography
 Series statement
 Wiley series in probability and statistics
 http://library.link/vocab/subjectName

 Probabilities
 Uncertainty
 Decision making
 Mathematical statistics
 MATHEMATICS
 MATHEMATICS
 Decision making
 Mathematical statistics
 Probabilities
 Label
 Understanding uncertainty, Dennis V. Lindley, Minehead, Somerset, England
 Bibliography note
 Includes bibliographical references and index
 Carrier category
 online resource
 Carrier category code

 cr
 Carrier MARC source
 rdacarrier
 Content category
 text
 Content type code

 txt
 Content type MARC source
 rdacontent
 Contents

 Understanding Uncertainty; Contents; Preface; Prologue; Chapter 1: Uncertainty; 1.1. Introduction; 1.2. Examples; 1.3. Suppression of Uncertainty; 1.4. The Removal of Uncertainty; 1.5. The Uses of Uncertainty; 1.6. The Calculus of Uncertainty; 1.7. Beliefs; 1.8. Decision Analysis; Chapter 2: Stylistic Questions; 2.1. Reason; 2.2. Unreason; 2.3. Facts; 2.4. Emotion; 2.5. Normative and Descriptive Approaches; 2.6. Simplicity; 2.7. Mathematics; 2.8. Writing; 2.9. Mathematics Tutorial; Chapter 3: Probability; 3.1. Measurement; 3.2. Randomness; 3.3. A Standard for Probability; 3.4. Probability
 3.5. Coherence3.6. Belief; 3.7. Complementary Event; 3.8. Odds; 3.9. Knowledge Base; 3.10. Examples; 3.11. Retrospect; Chapter 4: Two Events; 4.1. Two Events; 4.2. Conditional Probability; 4.3. Independence; 4.4. Association; 4.5. Examples; 4.6. Supposition and Fact; 4.7. Seeing and Doing; Chapter 5: The Rules of Probability; 5.1. Combinations of Events; 5.2. Addition Rule; 5.3. Multiplication Rule; 5.4. The Basic Rules; 5.5. Examples; 5.6. Extension of the Conversation; 5.7. Dutch Books; 5.8. Scoring Rules; 5.9. Logic Again; 5.10. Decision Analysis; 5.11. The Prisoners' Dilemma
 5.12. The Calculus and Reality5.13. Closure; Chapter 6: Bayes Rule; 6.1. Transposed Conditionals; 6.2. Learning; 6.3. Bayes Rule; 6.4. Medical Diagnosis; 6.5. Odds Form of Bayes Rule; 6.6. Forensic Evidence; 6.7. Likelihood Ratio; 6.8. Cromwell's Rule; 6.9. A Tale of Two Urns; 6.10. Ravens; 6.11. Diagnosis and Related Matters; 6.12. Information; Chapter 7: Measuring Uncertainty; 7.1. Classical Form; 7.2. Frequency Data; 7.3. Exchangeability; 7.4. Bernoulli Series; 7.5. De Finetti's Result; 7.6. Large Numbers; 7.7. Belief and Frequency; 7.8. Chance; Chapter 8: Three Events
 8.1. The Rules of Probability8.2. Simpson's Paradox; 8.3. Source of the Paradox; 8.4. Experimentation; 8.5. Randomization; 8.6. Exchangeability; 8.7. Spurious Association; 8.8. Independence; 8.9. Conclusions; Chapter 9: Variation; 9.1. Variation and Uncertainty; 9.2. Binomial Distribution; 9.3. Expectation; 9.4. Poisson Distribution; 9.5. Spread; 9.6. Variability as an Experimental Tool; 9.7. Probability and Chance; 9.8. Pictorial Representation; 9.9. Probability Densities; 9.10. The Normal Distribution; 9.11. Variation as a Natural Phenomenon; 9.12. Ellsberg's Paradox
 Chapter 10: Decision Analysis10.1. Beliefs and Actions; 10.2. Comparison of Consequences; 10.3. Medical Example; 10.4. Maximization of Expected Utility; 10.5. More on Utility; 10.6. Some Complications; 10.7. Reason and Emotion; 10.8. Numeracy; 10.9. Expected Utility; 10.10. Decision Trees; 10.11. The Art and Science of Decision Analysis; 10.12. Further Complications; 10.13. Combination of Features; 10.14. Legal Applications; Chapter 11: Science; 11.1. Scientific Method; 11.2. Science and Education; 11.3. Data Uncertainty; 11.4. Theories; 11.5. Uncertainty of a Theory
 Control code
 844245514
 Edition
 Revised edition.
 Extent
 1 online resource.
 Form of item
 online
 Isbn
 9781118650110
 Lccn
 2013020577
 Media category
 computer
 Media MARC source
 rdamedia
 Media type code

 c
 Specific material designation
 remote
 System control number
 (OCoLC)844245514
 Label
 Understanding uncertainty, Dennis V. Lindley, Minehead, Somerset, England
 Bibliography note
 Includes bibliographical references and index
 Carrier category
 online resource
 Carrier category code

 cr
 Carrier MARC source
 rdacarrier
 Content category
 text
 Content type code

 txt
 Content type MARC source
 rdacontent
 Contents

 Understanding Uncertainty; Contents; Preface; Prologue; Chapter 1: Uncertainty; 1.1. Introduction; 1.2. Examples; 1.3. Suppression of Uncertainty; 1.4. The Removal of Uncertainty; 1.5. The Uses of Uncertainty; 1.6. The Calculus of Uncertainty; 1.7. Beliefs; 1.8. Decision Analysis; Chapter 2: Stylistic Questions; 2.1. Reason; 2.2. Unreason; 2.3. Facts; 2.4. Emotion; 2.5. Normative and Descriptive Approaches; 2.6. Simplicity; 2.7. Mathematics; 2.8. Writing; 2.9. Mathematics Tutorial; Chapter 3: Probability; 3.1. Measurement; 3.2. Randomness; 3.3. A Standard for Probability; 3.4. Probability
 3.5. Coherence3.6. Belief; 3.7. Complementary Event; 3.8. Odds; 3.9. Knowledge Base; 3.10. Examples; 3.11. Retrospect; Chapter 4: Two Events; 4.1. Two Events; 4.2. Conditional Probability; 4.3. Independence; 4.4. Association; 4.5. Examples; 4.6. Supposition and Fact; 4.7. Seeing and Doing; Chapter 5: The Rules of Probability; 5.1. Combinations of Events; 5.2. Addition Rule; 5.3. Multiplication Rule; 5.4. The Basic Rules; 5.5. Examples; 5.6. Extension of the Conversation; 5.7. Dutch Books; 5.8. Scoring Rules; 5.9. Logic Again; 5.10. Decision Analysis; 5.11. The Prisoners' Dilemma
 5.12. The Calculus and Reality5.13. Closure; Chapter 6: Bayes Rule; 6.1. Transposed Conditionals; 6.2. Learning; 6.3. Bayes Rule; 6.4. Medical Diagnosis; 6.5. Odds Form of Bayes Rule; 6.6. Forensic Evidence; 6.7. Likelihood Ratio; 6.8. Cromwell's Rule; 6.9. A Tale of Two Urns; 6.10. Ravens; 6.11. Diagnosis and Related Matters; 6.12. Information; Chapter 7: Measuring Uncertainty; 7.1. Classical Form; 7.2. Frequency Data; 7.3. Exchangeability; 7.4. Bernoulli Series; 7.5. De Finetti's Result; 7.6. Large Numbers; 7.7. Belief and Frequency; 7.8. Chance; Chapter 8: Three Events
 8.1. The Rules of Probability8.2. Simpson's Paradox; 8.3. Source of the Paradox; 8.4. Experimentation; 8.5. Randomization; 8.6. Exchangeability; 8.7. Spurious Association; 8.8. Independence; 8.9. Conclusions; Chapter 9: Variation; 9.1. Variation and Uncertainty; 9.2. Binomial Distribution; 9.3. Expectation; 9.4. Poisson Distribution; 9.5. Spread; 9.6. Variability as an Experimental Tool; 9.7. Probability and Chance; 9.8. Pictorial Representation; 9.9. Probability Densities; 9.10. The Normal Distribution; 9.11. Variation as a Natural Phenomenon; 9.12. Ellsberg's Paradox
 Chapter 10: Decision Analysis10.1. Beliefs and Actions; 10.2. Comparison of Consequences; 10.3. Medical Example; 10.4. Maximization of Expected Utility; 10.5. More on Utility; 10.6. Some Complications; 10.7. Reason and Emotion; 10.8. Numeracy; 10.9. Expected Utility; 10.10. Decision Trees; 10.11. The Art and Science of Decision Analysis; 10.12. Further Complications; 10.13. Combination of Features; 10.14. Legal Applications; Chapter 11: Science; 11.1. Scientific Method; 11.2. Science and Education; 11.3. Data Uncertainty; 11.4. Theories; 11.5. Uncertainty of a Theory
 Control code
 844245514
 Edition
 Revised edition.
 Extent
 1 online resource.
 Form of item
 online
 Isbn
 9781118650110
 Lccn
 2013020577
 Media category
 computer
 Media MARC source
 rdamedia
 Media type code

 c
 Specific material designation
 remote
 System control number
 (OCoLC)844245514
Subject
 Decision making  Mathematics
 Decision making  Mathematics
 Electronic books
 Electronic books
 Electronic bookss
 MATHEMATICS  Applied
 MATHEMATICS  Probability & Statistics  General
 Mathematical statistics
 Mathematical statistics
 Probabilities
 Probabilities
 Uncertainty  Mathematics
Genre
Member of
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