Coverart for item
The Resource Understanding uncertainty, Dennis V. Lindley, Minehead, Somerset, England

Understanding uncertainty, Dennis V. Lindley, Minehead, Somerset, England

Label
Understanding uncertainty
Title
Understanding uncertainty
Statement of responsibility
Dennis V. Lindley, Minehead, Somerset, England
Creator
Subject
Genre
Language
eng
Summary
"We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill."--Dennis Lindley Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. Completely reformatted and visually easy to read, this revised edition includes new material on the computational influence and breakthroughs of hierarchical Bayesian methods and inference; betting (Efron's dice); and the current recession; as well as additional illustrations, updated references, and simplified writing for clarity, ease of continuity and research
Member of
Cataloging source
DLC
http://library.link/vocab/creatorDate
1923-2013
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Lindley, D. V.
Dewey number
519.2
Index
index present
LC call number
QA273
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
  • dictionaries
  • bibliography
Series statement
Wiley series in probability and statistics
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Probabilities
  • Uncertainty
  • Decision making
  • Mathematical statistics
  • MATHEMATICS
  • MATHEMATICS
  • Decision making
  • Mathematical statistics
  • Probabilities
Label
Understanding uncertainty, Dennis V. Lindley, Minehead, Somerset, England
Instantiates
Publication
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references and index
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
  • Understanding Uncertainty; Contents; Preface; Prologue; Chapter 1: Uncertainty; 1.1. Introduction; 1.2. Examples; 1.3. Suppression of Uncertainty; 1.4. The Removal of Uncertainty; 1.5. The Uses of Uncertainty; 1.6. The Calculus of Uncertainty; 1.7. Beliefs; 1.8. Decision Analysis; Chapter 2: Stylistic Questions; 2.1. Reason; 2.2. Unreason; 2.3. Facts; 2.4. Emotion; 2.5. Normative and Descriptive Approaches; 2.6. Simplicity; 2.7. Mathematics; 2.8. Writing; 2.9. Mathematics Tutorial; Chapter 3: Probability; 3.1. Measurement; 3.2. Randomness; 3.3. A Standard for Probability; 3.4. Probability
  • 3.5. Coherence3.6. Belief; 3.7. Complementary Event; 3.8. Odds; 3.9. Knowledge Base; 3.10. Examples; 3.11. Retrospect; Chapter 4: Two Events; 4.1. Two Events; 4.2. Conditional Probability; 4.3. Independence; 4.4. Association; 4.5. Examples; 4.6. Supposition and Fact; 4.7. Seeing and Doing; Chapter 5: The Rules of Probability; 5.1. Combinations of Events; 5.2. Addition Rule; 5.3. Multiplication Rule; 5.4. The Basic Rules; 5.5. Examples; 5.6. Extension of the Conversation; 5.7. Dutch Books; 5.8. Scoring Rules; 5.9. Logic Again; 5.10. Decision Analysis; 5.11. The Prisoners' Dilemma
  • 5.12. The Calculus and Reality5.13. Closure; Chapter 6: Bayes Rule; 6.1. Transposed Conditionals; 6.2. Learning; 6.3. Bayes Rule; 6.4. Medical Diagnosis; 6.5. Odds Form of Bayes Rule; 6.6. Forensic Evidence; 6.7. Likelihood Ratio; 6.8. Cromwell's Rule; 6.9. A Tale of Two Urns; 6.10. Ravens; 6.11. Diagnosis and Related Matters; 6.12. Information; Chapter 7: Measuring Uncertainty; 7.1. Classical Form; 7.2. Frequency Data; 7.3. Exchangeability; 7.4. Bernoulli Series; 7.5. De Finetti's Result; 7.6. Large Numbers; 7.7. Belief and Frequency; 7.8. Chance; Chapter 8: Three Events
  • 8.1. The Rules of Probability8.2. Simpson's Paradox; 8.3. Source of the Paradox; 8.4. Experimentation; 8.5. Randomization; 8.6. Exchangeability; 8.7. Spurious Association; 8.8. Independence; 8.9. Conclusions; Chapter 9: Variation; 9.1. Variation and Uncertainty; 9.2. Binomial Distribution; 9.3. Expectation; 9.4. Poisson Distribution; 9.5. Spread; 9.6. Variability as an Experimental Tool; 9.7. Probability and Chance; 9.8. Pictorial Representation; 9.9. Probability Densities; 9.10. The Normal Distribution; 9.11. Variation as a Natural Phenomenon; 9.12. Ellsberg's Paradox
  • Chapter 10: Decision Analysis10.1. Beliefs and Actions; 10.2. Comparison of Consequences; 10.3. Medical Example; 10.4. Maximization of Expected Utility; 10.5. More on Utility; 10.6. Some Complications; 10.7. Reason and Emotion; 10.8. Numeracy; 10.9. Expected Utility; 10.10. Decision Trees; 10.11. The Art and Science of Decision Analysis; 10.12. Further Complications; 10.13. Combination of Features; 10.14. Legal Applications; Chapter 11: Science; 11.1. Scientific Method; 11.2. Science and Education; 11.3. Data Uncertainty; 11.4. Theories; 11.5. Uncertainty of a Theory
Control code
844245514
Edition
Revised edition.
Extent
1 online resource.
Form of item
online
Isbn
9781118650110
Lccn
2013020577
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(OCoLC)844245514
Label
Understanding uncertainty, Dennis V. Lindley, Minehead, Somerset, England
Publication
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references and index
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
  • Understanding Uncertainty; Contents; Preface; Prologue; Chapter 1: Uncertainty; 1.1. Introduction; 1.2. Examples; 1.3. Suppression of Uncertainty; 1.4. The Removal of Uncertainty; 1.5. The Uses of Uncertainty; 1.6. The Calculus of Uncertainty; 1.7. Beliefs; 1.8. Decision Analysis; Chapter 2: Stylistic Questions; 2.1. Reason; 2.2. Unreason; 2.3. Facts; 2.4. Emotion; 2.5. Normative and Descriptive Approaches; 2.6. Simplicity; 2.7. Mathematics; 2.8. Writing; 2.9. Mathematics Tutorial; Chapter 3: Probability; 3.1. Measurement; 3.2. Randomness; 3.3. A Standard for Probability; 3.4. Probability
  • 3.5. Coherence3.6. Belief; 3.7. Complementary Event; 3.8. Odds; 3.9. Knowledge Base; 3.10. Examples; 3.11. Retrospect; Chapter 4: Two Events; 4.1. Two Events; 4.2. Conditional Probability; 4.3. Independence; 4.4. Association; 4.5. Examples; 4.6. Supposition and Fact; 4.7. Seeing and Doing; Chapter 5: The Rules of Probability; 5.1. Combinations of Events; 5.2. Addition Rule; 5.3. Multiplication Rule; 5.4. The Basic Rules; 5.5. Examples; 5.6. Extension of the Conversation; 5.7. Dutch Books; 5.8. Scoring Rules; 5.9. Logic Again; 5.10. Decision Analysis; 5.11. The Prisoners' Dilemma
  • 5.12. The Calculus and Reality5.13. Closure; Chapter 6: Bayes Rule; 6.1. Transposed Conditionals; 6.2. Learning; 6.3. Bayes Rule; 6.4. Medical Diagnosis; 6.5. Odds Form of Bayes Rule; 6.6. Forensic Evidence; 6.7. Likelihood Ratio; 6.8. Cromwell's Rule; 6.9. A Tale of Two Urns; 6.10. Ravens; 6.11. Diagnosis and Related Matters; 6.12. Information; Chapter 7: Measuring Uncertainty; 7.1. Classical Form; 7.2. Frequency Data; 7.3. Exchangeability; 7.4. Bernoulli Series; 7.5. De Finetti's Result; 7.6. Large Numbers; 7.7. Belief and Frequency; 7.8. Chance; Chapter 8: Three Events
  • 8.1. The Rules of Probability8.2. Simpson's Paradox; 8.3. Source of the Paradox; 8.4. Experimentation; 8.5. Randomization; 8.6. Exchangeability; 8.7. Spurious Association; 8.8. Independence; 8.9. Conclusions; Chapter 9: Variation; 9.1. Variation and Uncertainty; 9.2. Binomial Distribution; 9.3. Expectation; 9.4. Poisson Distribution; 9.5. Spread; 9.6. Variability as an Experimental Tool; 9.7. Probability and Chance; 9.8. Pictorial Representation; 9.9. Probability Densities; 9.10. The Normal Distribution; 9.11. Variation as a Natural Phenomenon; 9.12. Ellsberg's Paradox
  • Chapter 10: Decision Analysis10.1. Beliefs and Actions; 10.2. Comparison of Consequences; 10.3. Medical Example; 10.4. Maximization of Expected Utility; 10.5. More on Utility; 10.6. Some Complications; 10.7. Reason and Emotion; 10.8. Numeracy; 10.9. Expected Utility; 10.10. Decision Trees; 10.11. The Art and Science of Decision Analysis; 10.12. Further Complications; 10.13. Combination of Features; 10.14. Legal Applications; Chapter 11: Science; 11.1. Scientific Method; 11.2. Science and Education; 11.3. Data Uncertainty; 11.4. Theories; 11.5. Uncertainty of a Theory
Control code
844245514
Edition
Revised edition.
Extent
1 online resource.
Form of item
online
Isbn
9781118650110
Lccn
2013020577
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(OCoLC)844245514

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